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Mansfield Town vs Tranmere — League Two 2018

Mansfield Town
Mansfield Town
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tranmere
Tranmere
9/12/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 1One Call Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 139+ matches

Mansfield Town48%
×Draw25%
Tranmere27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mansfield Town
1.54
Tranmere
1.09

Mansfield Town creates 41% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 144 away

creates per match

Mansfield Town
1.60
Tranmere
0.97

allows per match

Mansfield Town
1.22
Tranmere
1.47

finishing

Mansfield Town+0.00on par
Tranmere+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mansfield Town ↓

Tranmere →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Mansfield Town or draw
73%
Mansfield Town or Tranmere
75%
Draw or Tranmere
52%

Winning margin

Mansfield Town wins by 2+
24%
Tranmere wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Mansfield Town 1+ goals
79%
Mansfield Town 2+ goals
45%
Mansfield Town 3+ goals
20%
Tranmere 1+ goals
66%
Tranmere 2+ goals
30%
Tranmere 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)
64%
Tranmere (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mansfield Town at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.22 · 139 matches

Tranmere away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.47 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mansfield Town attack 1.60 + Tranmere defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.54

Tranmere attack 0.97 + Mansfield Town defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Mansfield Town scores more
48%
level
25%
Tranmere scores more
27%

Mansfield Town at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Mansfield Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
C. O'KeeffeMansfield TownMansfield Town · M
8.2

Match Events

64'
M. Ellis← C. MacDonald
75'
N. Maynard← J. Bowery
84'
T. Sinclair← H. Charsley
90+2'
S. Payne← J. Vaughan

Possession

50%Mansfield

Shots

19Mansfield

Pass accuracy

52%Mansfield

Statistics

MansfieldTranmere
Overview
50%Possession50%
19Total Shots5
5Corners3
10Fouls11
Shots
19Total Shots5
3On Target1
7Off Target2
9Blocked2
11Inside Box3
8Outside Box2
Passing
50%Possession50%
326Total Passes335
207Accurate Passes196
63%Pass Accuracy59%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
10Fouls11
1Offsides0

League Two: Mansfield Town 0–0 Tranmere

Mansfield Town and Tranmere drew 0-0 in League Two on September 12, 2020.

Mansfield Town controlled possession (50%) and registered 19 shots to 5.

The match was played at One Call Stadium in Mansfield, Nottinghamshire.