Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mansfield Town vs Notts County — League Two 2018

Mansfield Town
Mansfield Town
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Notts County
Notts County
2/3/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 31One Call Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Mansfield Town46%
×Draw24%
Notts County30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mansfield Town
1.62
Notts County
1.27

Mansfield Town creates 28% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 94 away

creates per match

Mansfield Town
1.64
Notts County
1.38

allows per match

Mansfield Town
1.16
Notts County
1.60

finishing

Mansfield Town+0.00on par
Notts County+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mansfield Town ↓

Notts County →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Mansfield Town or draw
70%
Mansfield Town or Notts County
76%
Draw or Notts County
54%

Winning margin

Mansfield Town wins by 2+
23%
Notts County wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Mansfield Town 1+ goals
80%
Mansfield Town 2+ goals
48%
Mansfield Town 3+ goals
22%
Notts County 1+ goals
72%
Notts County 2+ goals
36%
Notts County 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)
60%
Notts County (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mansfield Town at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.16 · 134 matches

Notts County away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.60 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mansfield Town attack 1.64 + Notts County defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.62

Notts County attack 1.38 + Mansfield Town defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mansfield Town scores more
46%
level
24%
Notts County scores more
30%

Mansfield Town at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mansfield Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Mansfield Town 1–0 Notts County

Mansfield Town beat Notts County 1-0 in League Two on February 3, 2024.

The match was played at One Call Stadium in Mansfield, Nottinghamshire.