Mansfield Town 1–0 Morecambe: Result & Stats

Mansfield Town

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Morecambe

2/27/2021

League Two · Round 32One Call Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Mansfield Town50%

×Draw24%

Morecambe26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mansfield TownExpected goals in this matchMorecambe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.14

Mansfield Town

1.69

Morecambe

1.14

Mansfield Town creates 48% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 110 away

1.64

creates per match

1.11

1.16

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Mansfield Town

1.64

Morecambe

1.11

allows per match

Mansfield Town

1.16

Morecambe

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mansfield Town+0.00on par

Morecambe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mansfield Town ↓

Morecambe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Mansfield Town or draw

74%

Mansfield Town or Morecambe

76%

Draw or Morecambe

50%

Winning margin

Mansfield Town wins by 2+

27%

Morecambe wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Mansfield Town 1+ goals

82%

Mansfield Town 2+ goals

50%

Mansfield Town 3+ goals

24%

Morecambe 1+ goals

68%

Morecambe 2+ goals

32%

Morecambe 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)

66%

Morecambe (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mansfield Town at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.16 · 134 matches

Morecambe away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.75 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mansfield Town attack 1.64 + Morecambe defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.69

Morecambe attack 1.11 + Mansfield Town defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Mansfield Town scores more

50%

level

24%

Morecambe scores more

26%

Mansfield Town at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Mansfield Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff