Mansfield Town vs Milton Keynes Dons

Mansfield Town

Preview

15:00

Milton Keynes Dons

11/21/2026

League One · Round 16One Call Stadium

42%

Mansfield Town

model favours

42%25%32%

Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

52%

over 2.5 goals

56%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Mansfield Town42%

×Draw25%

Milton Keynes Dons32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mansfield TownExpected goals in this matchMilton Keynes Dons

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.27

Mansfield Town

1.49

Milton Keynes Dons

1.27

Mansfield Town creates 17% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 9 away

1.76

creates per match

1.33

1.20

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Mansfield Town

1.76

Milton Keynes Dons

1.33

allows per match

Mansfield Town

1.20

Milton Keynes Dons

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mansfield Town+0.00on par

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mansfield Town ↓

Milton Keynes Dons →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Mansfield Town or draw

68%

Mansfield Town or Milton Keynes Dons

75%

Draw or Milton Keynes Dons

58%

Winning margin

Mansfield Town wins by 2+

21%

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Mansfield Town 1+ goals

77%

Mansfield Town 2+ goals

44%

Mansfield Town 3+ goals

19%

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals

72%

Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals

36%

Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)

57%

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mansfield Town at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.20 · 25 matches

Milton Keynes Dons away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mansfield Town attack 1.76 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.49

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.33 + Mansfield Town defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Mansfield Town scores more

42%

level

25%

Milton Keynes Dons scores more

32%

Mansfield Town at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Mansfield Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Mansfield Town outscore their xG (2.2 vs 1.7 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Town

WDWWD

Dons

WDWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff