Mansfield Town 1–2 Milton Keynes Dons

Mansfield Town

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Milton Keynes Dons

S. Quinn 15'

M. Dennis 54'

A. Gilbey 20'

3/5/2024

League Two · Round 21One Call Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Mansfield Town27%

×Draw24%

Milton Keynes Dons48%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mansfield TownExpected goals in this matchMilton Keynes Dons

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.64

Mansfield Town

1.18

Milton Keynes Dons

1.64

Milton Keynes Dons creates 39% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 59 away

0.75

creates per match

1.53

1.75

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Mansfield Town

0.75

Milton Keynes Dons

1.53

allows per match

Mansfield Town

1.75

Milton Keynes Dons

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mansfield Town+0.00on par

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mansfield Town ↓

Milton Keynes Dons →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Mansfield Town or draw

52%

Mansfield Town or Milton Keynes Dons

76%

Draw or Milton Keynes Dons

73%

Winning margin

Mansfield Town wins by 2+

11%

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Mansfield Town 1+ goals

69%

Mansfield Town 2+ goals

33%

Mansfield Town 3+ goals

12%

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals

81%

Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals

49%

Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)

36%

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mansfield Town at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Milton Keynes Dons away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.61 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mansfield Town attack 0.75 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.18

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.53 + Mansfield Town defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Mansfield Town scores more

27%

level

24%

Milton Keynes Dons scores more

48%

Milton Keynes Dons at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Milton Keynes Dons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

A. Gilbey

Milton Keynes Dons · F

8.6

Match Events

15'

20'

45+2'

50'

54'

61'

61'

61'

S. McLaughlin← B. Cargill

62'

E. Tezgel← D. Kemp

62'

E. Harrison← M. Dennis

71'

H. Boateng← S. Quinn

71'

G. Maris← L. Akins

84'

E. Robson← J. Payne

84'

C. Norman← M. Williams

85'

Hiram Boateng

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MansfieldMilton

Overview

47%Possession53%

23Total Shots17

5Corners3

12Fouls9

Shots

23Total Shots17

11On Target5

3Off Target8

9Blocked4

15Inside Box8

8Outside Box9

Passing

47%Possession53%

426Total Passes497

316Accurate Passes392

74%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

3Saves7

Discipline

12Fouls9

2Yellow Cards1

5Offsides2