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Mansfield Town vs Colchester — League Two 2018

Mansfield Town
Mansfield Town
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Colchester
Colchester
11/20/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 13One Call Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 139+ matches

Mansfield Town46%
×Draw26%
Colchester28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mansfield Town
1.47
Colchester
1.09

Mansfield Town creates 35% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 159 away

creates per match

Mansfield Town
1.60
Colchester
0.96

allows per match

Mansfield Town
1.22
Colchester
1.33

finishing

Mansfield Town+0.00on par
Colchester+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mansfield Town ↓

Colchester →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Mansfield Town or draw
72%
Mansfield Town or Colchester
74%
Draw or Colchester
54%

Winning margin

Mansfield Town wins by 2+
23%
Colchester wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Mansfield Town 1+ goals
77%
Mansfield Town 2+ goals
43%
Mansfield Town 3+ goals
18%
Colchester 1+ goals
66%
Colchester 2+ goals
30%
Colchester 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)
62%
Colchester (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mansfield Town at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.22 · 139 matches

Colchester away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.33 · 159 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mansfield Town attack 1.60 + Colchester defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.47

Colchester attack 0.96 + Mansfield Town defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mansfield Town scores more
46%
level
26%
Colchester scores more
28%

Mansfield Town at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mansfield Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Mansfield Town 1–1 Colchester

Mansfield Town and Colchester drew 1-1 in League Two on November 20, 2020.

The match was played at One Call Stadium in Mansfield, Nottinghamshire.