Colchester 0–2 Mansfield Town: Result & Stats

Colchester

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Mansfield Town

5/8/2023

League Two · Round 46JobServe Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 136+ matches

Colchester37%

×Draw27%

Mansfield Town36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ColchesterExpected goals in this matchMansfield Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.23

Colchester

1.25

Mansfield Town

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 180 home / 136 away

1.37

creates per match

1.38

1.09

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Colchester

1.37

Mansfield Town

1.38

allows per match

Colchester

1.09

Mansfield Town

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Colchester+0.00on par

Mansfield Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colchester ↓

Mansfield Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Colchester or draw

64%

Colchester or Mansfield Town

73%

Draw or Mansfield Town

63%

Winning margin

Colchester wins by 2+

16%

Mansfield Town wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Colchester 1+ goals

71%

Colchester 2+ goals

36%

Colchester 3+ goals

13%

Mansfield Town 1+ goals

71%

Mansfield Town 2+ goals

35%

Mansfield Town 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Colchester (draw refunded)

51%

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colchester at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.09 · 180 matches

Mansfield Town away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.13 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colchester attack 1.37 + Mansfield Town defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.25

Mansfield Town attack 1.38 + Colchester defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Colchester scores more

37%

level

27%

Mansfield Town scores more

36%

Colchester at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Colchester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff