Mansfield Town 2–2 Carlisle: Result & Stats

Mansfield Town

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Carlisle

N. Maynard 72', 58'

J. Kayode 90+3'

E. Watt 81'

2/1/2020

League Two · Round 31One Call Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 115+ matches

Mansfield Town45%

×Draw26%

Carlisle29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mansfield TownExpected goals in this matchCarlisle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.15

Mansfield Town

1.48

Carlisle

1.15

Mansfield Town creates 29% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 115 away

1.60

creates per match

1.07

1.22

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Mansfield Town

1.60

Carlisle

1.07

allows per match

Mansfield Town

1.22

Carlisle

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mansfield Town+0.00on par

Carlisle+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mansfield Town ↓

Carlisle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Mansfield Town or draw

71%

Mansfield Town or Carlisle

74%

Draw or Carlisle

55%

Winning margin

Mansfield Town wins by 2+

22%

Carlisle wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Mansfield Town 1+ goals

77%

Mansfield Town 2+ goals

43%

Mansfield Town 3+ goals

19%

Carlisle 1+ goals

68%

Carlisle 2+ goals

32%

Carlisle 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)

60%

Carlisle (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mansfield Town at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.22 · 139 matches

Carlisle away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.35 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mansfield Town attack 1.60 + Carlisle defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.48

Carlisle attack 1.07 + Mansfield Town defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Mansfield Town scores more

45%

level

26%

Carlisle scores more

29%

Mansfield Town at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Mansfield Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

N. Maynard

Mansfield Town · F

8.1

Match Events

22'

W. Tomlinson← A. MacDonald

58'

N. Maynard↳ D. Rose

59'

H. McKirdy← L. Alessandra

59'

C. Guy← J. Bridge

62'

Nathan Thomas

72'

N. Maynard↳ H. Charsley

77'

C. Hamilton← H. Charsley

81'

E. Watt↳ N. Anderton

83'

Elliot Watt

86'

S. Scougall← N. Thomas

88'

M. Preston← N. Maynard

90+3'

J. Kayode↳ E. Watt

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MansfieldCarlisle

Overview

45%Possession55%

7Total Shots14

4Corners7

8Fouls10

Shots

7Total Shots14

3On Target5

4Off Target3

0Blocked6

3Inside Box5

4Outside Box9

Passing

45%Possession55%

258Total Passes314

109Accurate Passes161

42%Pass Accuracy51%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls10

0Yellow Cards2

3Offsides0

Match Recap: Mansfield Town vs Carlisle

Mansfield Town and Carlisle drew 2-2 in League Two on February 1, 2020.

Goals: N. Maynard (58', 72'), E. Watt (81'), J. Kayode (90+3').

Carlisle controlled possession (55%) and registered 14 shots to 7.

The match was played at One Call Stadium in Mansfield, Nottinghamshire.

Mansfield Town vs Carlisle — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Mansfield Town vs Carlisle