Carlisle 1–0 Mansfield Town: Result & Stats

Carlisle

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mansfield Town

O. Patrick 56'

4/18/2022

League Two · Round 43Brunton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Carlisle36%

×Draw27%

Mansfield Town37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CarlisleExpected goals in this matchMansfield Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.23

Carlisle

1.21

Mansfield Town

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 112 home / 141 away

1.26

creates per match

1.25

1.21

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Carlisle

1.26

Mansfield Town

1.25

allows per match

Carlisle

1.21

Mansfield Town

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carlisle+0.00on par

Mansfield Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlisle ↓

Mansfield Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Carlisle or draw

63%

Carlisle or Mansfield Town

73%

Draw or Mansfield Town

64%

Winning margin

Carlisle wins by 2+

15%

Mansfield Town wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Carlisle 1+ goals

70%

Carlisle 2+ goals

34%

Carlisle 3+ goals

12%

Mansfield Town 1+ goals

71%

Mansfield Town 2+ goals

35%

Mansfield Town 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Carlisle (draw refunded)

49%

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlisle at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.21 · 112 matches

Mansfield Town away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.16 · 141 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlisle attack 1.26 + Mansfield Town defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.21

Mansfield Town attack 1.25 + Carlisle defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Carlisle scores more

36%

level

27%

Mansfield Town scores more

37%

Mansfield Town at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Mansfield Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33

M. Howard

Carlisle · G

8.2

Match Events

56'

O. Patrick↳ D. Devine

68'

Jack Armer

68'

K. Wallace← R. Stirk

71'

M. Roberts← J. Armer

75'

D. Johnson← J. Bowery

79'

Dynel Simeu

80'

G. Maris← S. McLaughlin

86'

T. Sho-Silva← L. Alessandra

89'

Omari Patrick

90+3'

Brennan Dickenson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CarlisleMansfield

Overview

37%Possession63%

15Total Shots17

8Corners8

5Fouls6

Shots

15Total Shots17

4On Target5

7Off Target7

4Blocked5

11Inside Box10

4Outside Box7

Passing

37%Possession63%

263Total Passes437

155Accurate Passes314

59%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

5Fouls6

4Yellow Cards0

1Offsides1