Mansfield Town 1–0 Barrow: Result & Stats

Mansfield Town

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Barrow

O. Clarke 72'

9/23/2023

League Two · Round 9One Call Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 134+ matches

Mansfield Town48%

×Draw26%

Barrow26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mansfield TownExpected goals in this matchBarrow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.07

Mansfield Town

1.54

Barrow

1.07

Mansfield Town creates 44% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 138 away

1.64

creates per match

0.99

1.16

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Mansfield Town

1.64

Barrow

0.99

allows per match

Mansfield Town

1.16

Barrow

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mansfield Town+0.00on par

Barrow+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mansfield Town ↓

Barrow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Mansfield Town or draw

74%

Mansfield Town or Barrow

74%

Draw or Barrow

52%

Winning margin

Mansfield Town wins by 2+

24%

Barrow wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Mansfield Town 1+ goals

79%

Mansfield Town 2+ goals

45%

Mansfield Town 3+ goals

20%

Barrow 1+ goals

66%

Barrow 2+ goals

29%

Barrow 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)

65%

Barrow (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mansfield Town at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.16 · 134 matches

Barrow away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.44 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mansfield Town attack 1.64 + Barrow defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.54

Barrow attack 0.99 + Mansfield Town defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Mansfield Town scores more

48%

level

26%

Barrow scores more

26%

Mansfield Town at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Mansfield Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

A. Flint

Mansfield Town · D

7.9

Match Events

55'

G. Garner← E. Acquah

56'

J. Chester← D. Worrall

70'

72'

73'

77'

77'

B. Cargill← C. MacDonald

82'

Aaron Lewis

82'

Robbie Gotts

82'

T. White← R. Gotts

82'

D. Telford← D. Campbell

83'

Junior Tiensia

85'

H. Boateng← A. Lewis

85'

J. Gale← W. Swan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MansfieldBarrow

Overview

61%Possession39%

14Total Shots9

6Corners2

9Fouls11

Shots

14Total Shots9

2On Target2

5Off Target5

7Blocked2

11Inside Box5

3Outside Box4

Passing

61%Possession39%

591Total Passes390

481Accurate Passes276

81%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls11

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

4Offsides1