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Manresa vs Vilafranca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Manresa
Manresa
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Vilafranca
Vilafranca
2/21/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 17Estadio El Congost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Manresa48%
×Draw27%
Vilafranca25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manresa
1.41
Vilafranca
0.95

Manresa creates 48% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 74 away

creates per match

Manresa
1.23
Vilafranca
1.12

allows per match

Manresa
0.78
Vilafranca
1.59

finishing

Manresa+0.00on par
Vilafranca+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manresa ↓

Vilafranca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Manresa or draw
75%
Manresa or Vilafranca
73%
Draw or Vilafranca
52%

Winning margin

Manresa wins by 2+
23%
Vilafranca wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Manresa 1+ goals
76%
Manresa 2+ goals
41%
Manresa 3+ goals
17%
Vilafranca 1+ goals
61%
Vilafranca 2+ goals
25%
Vilafranca 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Manresa (draw refunded)
65%
Vilafranca (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manresa at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.78 · 77 matches

Vilafranca away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.59 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manresa attack 1.23 + Vilafranca defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.41

Vilafranca attack 1.12 + Manresa defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Manresa scores more
48%
level
27%
Vilafranca scores more
25%

Manresa at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Manresa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Manresa 1–1 Vilafranca

Manresa and Vilafranca drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on February 21, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio El Congost in Manresa.