Manresa 3–0 Valls: Result & Stats

Manresa

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Valls

N. Baffoe 83', 62'

Sergio Giralte 13' (OG)

12/20/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 10Estadio El Congost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Manresa46%

×Draw30%

Valls24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ManresaExpected goals in this matchValls

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

0.76

Manresa

1.18

Valls

0.76

Manresa creates 55% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 15 away

1.23

creates per match

0.73

0.78

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Manresa

1.23

Valls

0.73

allows per match

Manresa

0.78

Valls

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Manresa+0.00on par

Valls+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manresa ↓

Valls →

0–014%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Manresa or draw

76%

Manresa or Valls

70%

Draw or Valls

54%

Winning margin

Manresa wins by 2+

20%

Valls wins by 2+

Team goals

Manresa 1+ goals

69%

Manresa 2+ goals

33%

Manresa 3+ goals

12%

Valls 1+ goals

53%

Valls 2+ goals

18%

Valls 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Manresa (draw refunded)

66%

Valls (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Manresa at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.78 · 77 matches

Valls away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Manresa attack 1.23 + Valls defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.18

Valls attack 0.73 + Manresa defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Manresa scores more

46%

level

30%

Valls scores more

24%

Manresa at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Manresa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

Sergio GiralteOwn goal

46'

Jordi de Sande← M. Djitte

59'

Sergi Gestí← Cesc Martínez

59'

Sergi Gomez← Ramón Miranda

62'

N. Baffoe

65'

Aleix Diaz← Franco Nantez

71'

Arnau Cucurull← Sergi Masqué

71'

Jordi Estivill← Marc Guasch

73'

Oscar Pérez← Sergio Giralte

76'

Uri Pérez← Izan Checa

83'

Jordi García← Marc Cuello

83'

Alex Iglesias← Erik Rafael

83'

N. Baffoe

Manresa

Valls

▼

▼

🥅

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

Manager: Ferran Costa

46'▲Jordi de Sande←▼M. Djitte

65'▲Aleix Diaz←▼Franco Nantez

76'▲Uri Pérez←▼Izan Checa

83'▲Jordi García←▼Marc Cuello

83'▲Alex Iglesias←▼Erik Rafael

Manresa substitutes

SandeDiazPérezGarcíaIglesias

Manager: Joan Pallarés

59'▲Sergi Gestí←▼Cesc Martínez

59'▲Sergi Gomez←▼Ramón Miranda

71'▲Arnau Cucurull←▼Sergi Masqué

71'▲Jordi Estivill←▼Marc Guasch

73'▲Oscar Pérez←▼Sergio Giralte

Valls substitutes

GestíGomezCucurullEstivillPérez

Match Recap: Manresa vs Valls

Manresa beat Valls 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on December 20, 2020.

Goals: Sergio Giralte (13' o.g.), N. Baffoe (62', 83').

The match was played at Estadio El Congost in Manresa.

Manresa vs Valls — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Manresa vs Valls