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Manresa vs Terrassa — League #877 2026

Manresa
Manresa
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Terrassa
Terrassa
10/2/2022League #877League #877 · Group 3 - 5Estadio El Congost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Manresa45%
×Draw24%
Terrassa31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manresa
1.67
Terrassa
1.33

Manresa creates 26% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Manresa
1.33
Terrassa
1.00

allows per match

Manresa
1.67
Terrassa
2.00

finishing

Manresa+0.00on par
Terrassa+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manresa ↓

Terrassa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Manresa or draw
69%
Manresa or Terrassa
76%
Draw or Terrassa
55%

Winning margin

Manresa wins by 2+
24%
Terrassa wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Manresa 1+ goals
81%
Manresa 2+ goals
50%
Manresa 3+ goals
23%
Terrassa 1+ goals
74%
Terrassa 2+ goals
38%
Terrassa 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Manresa (draw refunded)
60%
Terrassa (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manresa at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Terrassa away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manresa attack 1.33 + Terrassa defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Terrassa attack 1.00 + Manresa defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Manresa scores more
45%
level
24%
Terrassa scores more
31%

Manresa at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Manresa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #877: Manresa 2–1 Terrassa

Manresa beat Terrassa 2-1 in League #877 on October 2, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio El Congost in Manresa.