Manresa 1–2 Terrassa: Result & Stats

Manresa

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Terrassa

Bernat Benito 44'

Sergi Arranz 75'

Kilian Villaverde 4'

12/21/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 17Estadio El Congost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Manresa34%

×Draw30%

Terrassa36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ManresaExpected goals in this matchTerrassa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.07

Manresa

1.04

Terrassa

1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 77 home / 28 away

1.23

creates per match

1.36

0.78

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Manresa

1.23

Terrassa

1.36

allows per match

Manresa

0.78

Terrassa

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Manresa+0.00on par

Terrassa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manresa ↓

Terrassa →

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Manresa or draw

64%

Manresa or Terrassa

70%

Draw or Terrassa

66%

Winning margin

Manresa wins by 2+

13%

Terrassa wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Manresa 1+ goals

65%

Manresa 2+ goals

28%

Manresa 3+ goals

Terrassa 1+ goals

66%

Terrassa 2+ goals

29%

Terrassa 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Manresa (draw refunded)

49%

Terrassa (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Manresa at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.78 · 77 matches

Terrassa away — creates 1.36, concedes 0.86 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Manresa attack 1.23 + Terrassa defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.04

Terrassa attack 1.36 + Manresa defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 36%?"

Manresa scores more

34%

level

30%

Terrassa scores more

36%

Terrassa at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Terrassa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Kilian Villaverde

44'

Bernat Benito

46'

Kevin← Y. Sidibe

68'

Joan Figols← Walter Balufo

70'

Adrià Prado← Jaume Pascual

75'

Sergi Arranz

81'

David Sánchez← Fran Orellana

82'

Carlos García-Die← Kilian Villaverde

85'

Florent← Biel

Manresa

Terrassa

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: José Medina

68'▲Joan Figols←▼Walter Balufo

81'▲David Sánchez←▼Fran Orellana

85'▲Florent←▼Biel

Manresa substitutes

FigolsSánchezFlorent

Manager: Molist

46'▲Kevin←▼Y. Sidibe

70'▲Adrià Prado←▼Jaume Pascual

82'▲Carlos García-Die←▼Kilian Villaverde

Terrassa substitutes

KevinPradoGarcía-Die

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Manresa 1–2 Terrassa

Terrassa beat Manresa 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on December 21, 2019.

Goals: Kilian Villaverde (4'), Bernat Benito (44'), Sergi Arranz (75').

The match was played at Estadio El Congost in Manresa.

Manresa vs Terrassa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Manresa 1–2 Terrassa