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Manresa vs Pobla Mafumet — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Manresa
Manresa
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Pobla Mafumet
Pobla Mafumet
3/13/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 27Estadio El Congost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Manresa45%
×Draw28%
Pobla Mafumet27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manresa
1.29
Pobla Mafumet
0.93

Manresa creates 39% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 76 away

creates per match

Manresa
1.23
Pobla Mafumet
1.07

allows per match

Manresa
0.78
Pobla Mafumet
1.34

finishing

Manresa+0.00on par
Pobla Mafumet+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manresa ↓

Pobla Mafumet →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Manresa or draw
73%
Manresa or Pobla Mafumet
72%
Draw or Pobla Mafumet
55%

Winning margin

Manresa wins by 2+
20%
Pobla Mafumet wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Manresa 1+ goals
72%
Manresa 2+ goals
37%
Manresa 3+ goals
14%
Pobla Mafumet 1+ goals
61%
Pobla Mafumet 2+ goals
24%
Pobla Mafumet 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Manresa (draw refunded)
63%
Pobla Mafumet (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manresa at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.78 · 77 matches

Pobla Mafumet away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.34 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manresa attack 1.23 + Pobla Mafumet defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.29

Pobla Mafumet attack 1.07 + Manresa defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Manresa scores more
45%
level
28%
Pobla Mafumet scores more
27%

Manresa at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Manresa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Manresa vs Pobla Mafumet

Manresa beat Pobla Mafumet 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on March 13, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio El Congost in Manresa.