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Manresa vs L'Hospitalet — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Manresa
Manresa
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
L'Hospitalet
L'Hospitalet
C. Martinez 82'
A. Garcia 30'
F. Ribeiro 20'
11/9/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 10Estadio El Congost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Manresa39%
×Draw28%
L'Hospitalet34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manresa
1.25
L'Hospitalet
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 77 home / 95 away

creates per match

Manresa
1.23
L'Hospitalet
1.51

allows per match

Manresa
0.78
L'Hospitalet
1.27

finishing

Manresa+0.00on par
L'Hospitalet+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manresa ↓

L'Hospitalet →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Manresa or draw
66%
Manresa or L'Hospitalet
72%
Draw or L'Hospitalet
61%

Winning margin

Manresa wins by 2+
17%
L'Hospitalet wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Manresa 1+ goals
71%
Manresa 2+ goals
36%
Manresa 3+ goals
13%
L'Hospitalet 1+ goals
68%
L'Hospitalet 2+ goals
32%
L'Hospitalet 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Manresa (draw refunded)
53%
L'Hospitalet (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manresa at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.78 · 77 matches

L'Hospitalet away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.27 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manresa attack 1.23 + L'Hospitalet defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.25

L'Hospitalet attack 1.51 + Manresa defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Manresa scores more
39%
level
28%
L'Hospitalet scores more
34%

Manresa at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Manresa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
F. Ribeiro
30'
A. Garcia
82'
C. Martinez
Manresa
L'Hospitalet
Sergi Trullàs
Manager: Sergi Trullàs
Jaume Delgado
Manager: Jaume Delgado

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Manresa 0–3 L'Hospitalet

L'Hospitalet beat Manresa 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on November 9, 2025.

Goals: F. Ribeiro (20'), A. Garcia (30'), C. Martinez (82').

The match was played at Estadio El Congost in Manresa.