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Mannswörth vs Union Mauer — Landesliga - Wien 2019

Mannswörth
Mannswörth
FT
1 – 1
Union Mauer
Union Mauer
3/22/2024Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 19Sportplatz Mannswörth

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Mannswörth25%
×Draw23%
Union Mauer52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mannswörth
1.19
Union Mauer
1.80

Union Mauer creates 51% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 60 away

creates per match

Mannswörth
1.40
Union Mauer
2.03

allows per match

Mannswörth
1.58
Union Mauer
0.97

finishing

Mannswörth+0.00on par
Union Mauer+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mannswörth ↓

Union Mauer →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Mannswörth or draw
48%
Mannswörth or Union Mauer
77%
Draw or Union Mauer
75%

Winning margin

Mannswörth wins by 2+
10%
Union Mauer wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Mannswörth 1+ goals
70%
Mannswörth 2+ goals
33%
Mannswörth 3+ goals
12%
Union Mauer 1+ goals
83%
Union Mauer 2+ goals
54%
Union Mauer 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Mannswörth (draw refunded)
33%
Union Mauer (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mannswörth at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.58 · 57 matches

Union Mauer away — creates 2.03, concedes 0.97 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mannswörth attack 1.40 + Union Mauer defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.19

Union Mauer attack 2.03 + Mannswörth defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Mannswörth scores more
25%
level
23%
Union Mauer scores more
52%

Union Mauer at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Union Mauer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Wien: Mannswörth 1–1 Union Mauer

Mannswörth and Union Mauer drew 1-1 in Landesliga - Wien on March 22, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz Mannswörth in Mannswörth.