Mannswörth 3–0 Red Star Penzing: Result & Stats

Mannswörth

FT

3 – 0

Red Star Penzing

10/20/2023

Landesliga - Wien · Wien - 10Sportplatz Mannswörth

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Mannswörth39%

×Draw24%

Red Star Penzing37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MannswörthExpected goals in this matchRed Star Penzing

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.49

Mannswörth

1.55

Red Star Penzing

1.49

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 30 away

1.40

creates per match

1.40

1.58

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Mannswörth

1.40

Red Star Penzing

1.40

allows per match

Mannswörth

1.58

Red Star Penzing

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mannswörth+0.00on par

Red Star Penzing+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mannswörth ↓

Red Star Penzing →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Mannswörth or draw

63%

Mannswörth or Red Star Penzing

76%

Draw or Red Star Penzing

61%

Winning margin

Mannswörth wins by 2+

19%

Red Star Penzing wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Mannswörth 1+ goals

79%

Mannswörth 2+ goals

46%

Mannswörth 3+ goals

20%

Red Star Penzing 1+ goals

77%

Red Star Penzing 2+ goals

44%

Red Star Penzing 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Mannswörth (draw refunded)

52%

Red Star Penzing (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mannswörth at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.58 · 57 matches

Red Star Penzing away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.70 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mannswörth attack 1.40 + Red Star Penzing defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.55

Red Star Penzing attack 1.40 + Mannswörth defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Mannswörth scores more

39%

level

24%

Red Star Penzing scores more

37%

Mannswörth at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Mannswörth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff