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Mannswörth vs Hellas Kagran — Landesliga - Wien 2019

Mannswörth
Mannswörth
FT
2 – 3
Hellas Kagran
Hellas Kagran
6/7/2024Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 28Sportplatz Mannswörth

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Mannswörth49%
×Draw21%
Hellas Kagran29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mannswörth
2.06
Hellas Kagran
1.56

Mannswörth creates 32% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 30 away

creates per match

Mannswörth
1.40
Hellas Kagran
1.53

allows per match

Mannswörth
1.58
Hellas Kagran
2.73

finishing

Mannswörth+0.00on par
Hellas Kagran+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mannswörth ↓

Hellas Kagran →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Mannswörth or draw
71%
Mannswörth or Hellas Kagran
79%
Draw or Hellas Kagran
51%

Winning margin

Mannswörth wins by 2+
28%
Hellas Kagran wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Mannswörth 1+ goals
87%
Mannswörth 2+ goals
61%
Mannswörth 3+ goals
34%
Hellas Kagran 1+ goals
79%
Hellas Kagran 2+ goals
46%
Hellas Kagran 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Mannswörth (draw refunded)
63%
Hellas Kagran (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mannswörth at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.58 · 57 matches

Hellas Kagran away — creates 1.53, concedes 2.73 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mannswörth attack 1.40 + Hellas Kagran defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.06

Hellas Kagran attack 1.53 + Mannswörth defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Mannswörth scores more
49%
level
21%
Hellas Kagran scores more
29%

Mannswörth at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Mannswörth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Wien: Mannswörth 2–3 Hellas Kagran

Hellas Kagran beat Mannswörth 3-2 in Landesliga - Wien on June 7, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz Mannswörth in Mannswörth.