Mannswörth 1–2 First Vienna: Result & Stats

Mannswörth

FT

1 – 2

First Vienna

8/21/2020

Landesliga - Wien · Wien - 1Sportplatz Mannswörth

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Mannswörth18%

×Draw20%

First Vienna62%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MannswörthExpected goals in this matchFirst Vienna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

2.13

Mannswörth

1.04

First Vienna

2.13

First Vienna creates 105% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 13 away

1.40

creates per match

2.69

1.58

allows per match

0.69

creates per match

Mannswörth

1.40

First Vienna

2.69

allows per match

Mannswörth

1.58

First Vienna

0.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mannswörth+0.00on par

First Vienna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mannswörth ↓

First Vienna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–210%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Mannswörth or draw

38%

Mannswörth or First Vienna

80%

Draw or First Vienna

82%

Winning margin

Mannswörth wins by 2+

6%

First Vienna wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Mannswörth 1+ goals

65%

Mannswörth 2+ goals

28%

Mannswörth 3+ goals

9%

First Vienna 1+ goals

88%

First Vienna 2+ goals

63%

First Vienna 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Mannswörth (draw refunded)

22%

First Vienna (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mannswörth at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.58 · 57 matches

First Vienna away — creates 2.69, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mannswörth attack 1.40 + First Vienna defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.04

First Vienna attack 2.69 + Mannswörth defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Mannswörth scores more

18%

level

20%

First Vienna scores more

62%

First Vienna at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "First Vienna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff