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Mannswörth vs Favoritner AC — Landesliga - Wien 2019

Mannswörth
Mannswörth
CANC
22:00
Favoritner AC
Favoritner AC
3/28/2021Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 19Sportplatz Mannswörth

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Mannswörth40%
×Draw24%
Favoritner AC36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mannswörth
1.62
Favoritner AC
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 43 away

creates per match

Mannswörth
1.40
Favoritner AC
1.49

allows per match

Mannswörth
1.58
Favoritner AC
1.84

finishing

Mannswörth+0.00on par
Favoritner AC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mannswörth ↓

Favoritner AC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Mannswörth or draw
64%
Mannswörth or Favoritner AC
76%
Draw or Favoritner AC
60%

Winning margin

Mannswörth wins by 2+
20%
Favoritner AC wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Mannswörth 1+ goals
80%
Mannswörth 2+ goals
48%
Mannswörth 3+ goals
22%
Favoritner AC 1+ goals
79%
Favoritner AC 2+ goals
45%
Favoritner AC 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Mannswörth (draw refunded)
52%
Favoritner AC (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mannswörth at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.58 · 57 matches

Favoritner AC away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.84 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mannswörth attack 1.40 + Favoritner AC defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.62

Favoritner AC attack 1.49 + Mannswörth defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Mannswörth scores more
40%
level
24%
Favoritner AC scores more
36%

Mannswörth at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Mannswörth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mannswörth vs Favoritner AC — Match Preview

Mannswörth face Favoritner AC on March 28, 2021 in this Landesliga - Wien fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Mannswörth host Favoritner AC at Sportplatz Mannswörth.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.