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Mannswörth vs Dinamo Helfort — Landesliga - Wien 2019

Mannswörth
Mannswörth
FT
0 – 2
Dinamo Helfort
Dinamo Helfort
6/16/2023Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 29Sportplatz Mannswörth

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Mannswörth27%
×Draw23%
Dinamo Helfort50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mannswörth
1.28
Dinamo Helfort
1.80

Dinamo Helfort creates 41% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 61 away

creates per match

Mannswörth
1.40
Dinamo Helfort
2.02

allows per match

Mannswörth
1.58
Dinamo Helfort
1.16

finishing

Mannswörth+0.00on par
Dinamo Helfort+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mannswörth ↓

Dinamo Helfort →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Mannswörth or draw
50%
Mannswörth or Dinamo Helfort
77%
Draw or Dinamo Helfort
73%

Winning margin

Mannswörth wins by 2+
11%
Dinamo Helfort wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Mannswörth 1+ goals
72%
Mannswörth 2+ goals
37%
Mannswörth 3+ goals
14%
Dinamo Helfort 1+ goals
83%
Dinamo Helfort 2+ goals
54%
Dinamo Helfort 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Mannswörth (draw refunded)
36%
Dinamo Helfort (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mannswörth at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.58 · 57 matches

Dinamo Helfort away — creates 2.02, concedes 1.16 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mannswörth attack 1.40 + Dinamo Helfort defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.28

Dinamo Helfort attack 2.02 + Mannswörth defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Mannswörth scores more
27%
level
23%
Dinamo Helfort scores more
50%

Dinamo Helfort at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Dinamo Helfort will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Wien: Mannswörth 0–2 Dinamo Helfort

Dinamo Helfort beat Mannswörth 2-0 in Landesliga - Wien on June 16, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz Mannswörth in Mannswörth.