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Mannswörth vs Austria XIII — Landesliga - Wien 2019

Mannswörth
Mannswörth
CANC
21:00
Austria XIII
Austria XIII
5/24/2021Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 30Sportplatz Mannswörth

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Mannswörth41%
×Draw23%
Austria XIII36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mannswörth
1.67
Austria XIII
1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 75 away

creates per match

Mannswörth
1.40
Austria XIII
1.52

allows per match

Mannswörth
1.58
Austria XIII
1.93

finishing

Mannswörth+0.00on par
Austria XIII+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mannswörth ↓

Austria XIII →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Mannswörth or draw
64%
Mannswörth or Austria XIII
77%
Draw or Austria XIII
59%

Winning margin

Mannswörth wins by 2+
21%
Austria XIII wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Mannswörth 1+ goals
81%
Mannswörth 2+ goals
50%
Mannswörth 3+ goals
23%
Austria XIII 1+ goals
79%
Austria XIII 2+ goals
46%
Austria XIII 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Mannswörth (draw refunded)
53%
Austria XIII (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mannswörth at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.58 · 57 matches

Austria XIII away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.93 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mannswörth attack 1.40 + Austria XIII defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.67

Austria XIII attack 1.52 + Mannswörth defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mannswörth scores more
41%
level
23%
Austria XIII scores more
36%

Mannswörth at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mannswörth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mannswörth face Austria XIII (Landesliga - Wien)

Landesliga - Wien returns with Mannswörth hosting Austria XIII. Match starts May 24, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Mannswörth host Austria XIII at Sportplatz Mannswörth.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.