Austria XIII 1–3 Mannswörth: Result & Stats

Austria XIII

FT

1 – 3

Mannswörth

8/26/2023

Landesliga - Wien · Wien - 2Sportplatz Kinkplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Austria XIII61%

×Draw19%

Mannswörth20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Austria XIIIExpected goals in this matchMannswörth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.36

1.28

Austria XIII

2.36

Mannswörth

1.28

Austria XIII creates 84% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 59 away

2.14

creates per match

1.24

1.32

allows per match

2.58

creates per match

Austria XIII

2.14

Mannswörth

1.24

allows per match

Austria XIII

1.32

Mannswörth

2.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Austria XIII+0.00on par

Mannswörth+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria XIII ↓

Mannswörth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Austria XIII or draw

80%

Austria XIII or Mannswörth

81%

Draw or Mannswörth

39%

Winning margin

Austria XIII wins by 2+

39%

Mannswörth wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Austria XIII 1+ goals

90%

Austria XIII 2+ goals

68%

Austria XIII 3+ goals

41%

Mannswörth 1+ goals

72%

Mannswörth 2+ goals

37%

Mannswörth 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Austria XIII (draw refunded)

76%

Mannswörth (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria XIII at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.32 · 72 matches

Mannswörth away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.58 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria XIII attack 2.14 + Mannswörth defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.36

Mannswörth attack 1.24 + Austria XIII defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Austria XIII scores more

61%

level

19%

Mannswörth scores more

20%

Austria XIII at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Austria XIII will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff