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Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf vs Wiener Viktoria — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf
Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Wiener Viktoria
Wiener Viktoria
3/22/2024Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Ost - 20Aulandstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf56%
×Draw22%
Wiener Viktoria22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf
1.90
Wiener Viktoria
1.11

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf creates 71% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 89 away

creates per match

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf
1.99
Wiener Viktoria
1.07

allows per match

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf
1.15
Wiener Viktoria
1.81

finishing

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf+0.00on par
Wiener Viktoria+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf ↓

Wiener Viktoria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf or draw
78%
Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf or Wiener Viktoria
78%
Draw or Wiener Viktoria
44%

Winning margin

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf wins by 2+
32%
Wiener Viktoria wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 1+ goals
85%
Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 2+ goals
56%
Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 3+ goals
29%
Wiener Viktoria 1+ goals
67%
Wiener Viktoria 2+ goals
30%
Wiener Viktoria 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf (draw refunded)
72%
Wiener Viktoria (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf at home — creates 1.99, concedes 1.15 · 100 matches

Wiener Viktoria away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.81 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf attack 1.99 + Wiener Viktoria defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.90

Wiener Viktoria attack 1.07 + Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf scores more
56%
level
22%
Wiener Viktoria scores more
22%

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf vs Wiener Viktoria

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf beat Wiener Viktoria 4-0 in Regionalliga - Ost on March 22, 2024.

The match was played at Aulandstadion in Mannsdorf.