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Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf vs Union Mauer — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf
Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Union Mauer
Union Mauer
N. Meister 85'
C. Mester 9'
A. Frank 67'
10/3/2025Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Ost - 10Aulandstadion Mannsdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf56%
×Draw22%
Union Mauer22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf
1.98
Union Mauer
1.15

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf creates 72% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 31 away

creates per match

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf
2.02
Union Mauer
1.13

allows per match

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf
1.16
Union Mauer
1.94

finishing

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf+0.00on par
Union Mauer+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf ↓

Union Mauer →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf or draw
78%
Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf or Union Mauer
78%
Draw or Union Mauer
44%

Winning margin

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf wins by 2+
33%
Union Mauer wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 1+ goals
86%
Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 2+ goals
59%
Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 3+ goals
31%
Union Mauer 1+ goals
68%
Union Mauer 2+ goals
32%
Union Mauer 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf (draw refunded)
72%
Union Mauer (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.16 · 104 matches

Union Mauer away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.94 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf attack 2.02 + Union Mauer defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.98

Union Mauer attack 1.13 + Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf scores more
56%
level
22%
Union Mauer scores more
22%

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
C. Mester
67'
A. Frank
85'
N. Meister
Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf
Union
C. Knirsch
Manager: C. Knirsch
F. Sattler
Manager: F. Sattler

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 2 – 1 Union Mauer

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf beat Union Mauer 2-1 in Regionalliga - Ost on October 3, 2025.

Goals: C. Mester (9'), A. Frank (67'), N. Meister (85').

The match was played at Aulandstadion Mannsdorf in Mannsdorf an der Donau.