Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 2–2 Parndorf

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Parndorf

N. Panić 63'

M. Zlatkovic 23'

E. Dilic 68', 61'

11/3/2018

Regionalliga - Ost · Round 14Aulandstadion (Mannsdorf)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf46%

×Draw22%

Parndorf32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mannsdorf-GroßenzersdorfExpected goals in this matchParndorf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.53

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf

1.86

Parndorf

1.53

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf creates 22% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 35 away

2.02

creates per match

1.91

1.16

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf

2.02

Parndorf

1.91

allows per match

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf

1.16

Parndorf

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf+0.00on par

Parndorf+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf ↓

Parndorf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf or draw

68%

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf or Parndorf

78%

Draw or Parndorf

54%

Winning margin

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf wins by 2+

25%

Parndorf wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 1+ goals

84%

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 2+ goals

55%

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 3+ goals

28%

Parndorf 1+ goals

78%

Parndorf 2+ goals

45%

Parndorf 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf (draw refunded)

59%

Parndorf (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.16 · 104 matches

Parndorf away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.71 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf attack 2.02 + Parndorf defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.86

Parndorf attack 1.91 + Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf scores more

46%

level

22%

Parndorf scores more

32%

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

M. Zlatkovic

46'

D. Gruber← E. Auss

46'

T. Petritsch← E. Harrer

61'

T. Fekete← G. Karner

61'

E. Dilic

63'

N. Panić

68'

M. Gager← M. Zlatkovic

68'

E. Dilic

84'

F. Kreka← K. Breuer

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf

Parndorf

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: H. Friesenbichler

68'▲M. Gager←▼M. Zlatkovic

84'▲F. Kreka←▼K. Breuer

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf substitutes

GagerKrekaStrapajevicMulahalilovicPetermann

Manager: P. Hafner

46'▲D. Gruber←▼E. Auss

46'▲T. Petritsch←▼E. Harrer

61'▲T. Fekete←▼G. Karner

Parndorf substitutes

GruberPetritschFeketeSlovenciak