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Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf vs Fach-Donaufeld — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf
Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Fach-Donaufeld
Fach-Donaufeld
8/2/2024Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Ost - 1Aulandstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf43%
×Draw24%
Fach-Donaufeld34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf
1.67
Fach-Donaufeld
1.46

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf creates 14% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 60 away

creates per match

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf
2.02
Fach-Donaufeld
1.78

allows per match

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf
1.15
Fach-Donaufeld
1.32

finishing

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf+0.00on par
Fach-Donaufeld+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf ↓

Fach-Donaufeld →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf or draw
66%
Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf or Fach-Donaufeld
76%
Draw or Fach-Donaufeld
57%

Winning margin

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf wins by 2+
22%
Fach-Donaufeld wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 1+ goals
81%
Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 2+ goals
50%
Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 3+ goals
23%
Fach-Donaufeld 1+ goals
77%
Fach-Donaufeld 2+ goals
43%
Fach-Donaufeld 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf (draw refunded)
56%
Fach-Donaufeld (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.15 · 101 matches

Fach-Donaufeld away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.32 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf attack 2.02 + Fach-Donaufeld defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.67

Fach-Donaufeld attack 1.78 + Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf scores more
43%
level
24%
Fach-Donaufeld scores more
34%

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf vs Fach-Donaufeld

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf and Fach-Donaufeld drew 2-2 in Regionalliga - Ost on August 2, 2024.

The match was played at Aulandstadion in Mannsdorf.