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Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf vs Bruck/Leitha — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf
Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf
FT
3 – 0
Bruck/Leitha
Bruck/Leitha
3/3/2023Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Ost - 18Aulandstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf59%
×Draw21%
Bruck/Leitha20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf
2.09
Bruck/Leitha
1.12

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf creates 87% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 54 away

creates per match

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf
2.02
Bruck/Leitha
1.09

allows per match

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf
1.15
Bruck/Leitha
2.17

finishing

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf+0.00on par
Bruck/Leitha+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf ↓

Bruck/Leitha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf or draw
80%
Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf or Bruck/Leitha
79%
Draw or Bruck/Leitha
41%

Winning margin

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf wins by 2+
36%
Bruck/Leitha wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 1+ goals
88%
Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 2+ goals
62%
Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 3+ goals
34%
Bruck/Leitha 1+ goals
67%
Bruck/Leitha 2+ goals
31%
Bruck/Leitha 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf (draw refunded)
75%
Bruck/Leitha (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.15 · 101 matches

Bruck/Leitha away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.17 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf attack 2.02 + Bruck/Leitha defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.09

Bruck/Leitha attack 1.09 + Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf scores more
59%
level
21%
Bruck/Leitha scores more
20%

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Ost: Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 3–0 Bruck/Leitha

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf beat Bruck/Leitha 3-0 in Regionalliga - Ost on March 3, 2023.

The match was played at Aulandstadion in Mannsdorf.