Manningham United Blues 1–1 Green Gully

Manningham United Blues

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Green Gully

6/1/2024

Victoria NPL · Round 16Pettys Reserve Pitch 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Manningham United Blues38%

×Draw22%

Green Gully40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manningham United BluesExpected goals in this matchGreen Gully

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.85

Manningham United Blues

1.80

Green Gully

1.85

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 87 away

2.08

creates per match

1.32

2.38

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Manningham United Blues

2.08

Green Gully

1.32

allows per match

Manningham United Blues

2.38

Green Gully

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Manningham United Blues+0.00on par

Green Gully+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manningham United Blues ↓

Green Gully →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Manningham United Blues or draw

60%

Manningham United Blues or Green Gully

78%

Draw or Green Gully

62%

Winning margin

Manningham United Blues wins by 2+

20%

Green Gully wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Manningham United Blues 1+ goals

83%

Manningham United Blues 2+ goals

54%

Manningham United Blues 3+ goals

27%

Green Gully 1+ goals

84%

Green Gully 2+ goals

55%

Green Gully 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Manningham United Blues (draw refunded)

49%

Green Gully (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manningham United Blues at home — creates 2.08, concedes 2.38 · 13 matches

Green Gully away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.52 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manningham United Blues attack 2.08 + Green Gully defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.80

Green Gully attack 1.32 + Manningham United Blues defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Manningham United Blues scores more

38%

level

22%

Green Gully scores more

40%

Green Gully at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Green Gully will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff