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Manningham United Blues vs Bentleigh Greens — Victoria NPL 2 2021

Manningham United Blues
Manningham United Blues
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Bentleigh Greens
Bentleigh Greens
8/2/2025Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 24Pettys Reserve Pitch 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Manningham United Blues36%
×Draw23%
Bentleigh Greens41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manningham United Blues
1.56
Bentleigh Greens
1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 26 away

creates per match

Manningham United Blues
1.70
Bentleigh Greens
1.42

allows per match

Manningham United Blues
1.91
Bentleigh Greens
1.42

finishing

Manningham United Blues+0.00on par
Bentleigh Greens+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manningham United Blues ↓

Bentleigh Greens →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Manningham United Blues or draw
59%
Manningham United Blues or Bentleigh Greens
77%
Draw or Bentleigh Greens
64%

Winning margin

Manningham United Blues wins by 2+
17%
Bentleigh Greens wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Manningham United Blues 1+ goals
79%
Manningham United Blues 2+ goals
46%
Manningham United Blues 3+ goals
21%
Bentleigh Greens 1+ goals
81%
Bentleigh Greens 2+ goals
50%
Bentleigh Greens 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Manningham United Blues (draw refunded)
47%
Bentleigh Greens (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manningham United Blues at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.91 · 54 matches

Bentleigh Greens away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.42 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manningham United Blues attack 1.70 + Bentleigh Greens defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.56

Bentleigh Greens attack 1.42 + Manningham United Blues defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Manningham United Blues scores more
36%
level
23%
Bentleigh Greens scores more
41%

Bentleigh Greens at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bentleigh Greens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL 2: Manningham United Blues 0–2 Bentleigh Greens

Bentleigh Greens beat Manningham United Blues 2-0 in Victoria NPL 2 on August 2, 2025.

The match was played at Pettys Reserve Pitch 1 in Melbourne.