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UNIRB vs Galícia — Baiano - 2 2019

UNIRB
UNIRB
FT
2 – 1
Galícia
Galícia
3/31/2019Baiano - 2Baiano - 2 · Round 4Estádio Antônio de Figueiredo Carneiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

UNIRB61%
×Draw21%
Galícia17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UNIRB
2.00
Galícia
0.96

UNIRB creates 108% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 19 away

creates per match

UNIRB
2.46
Galícia
1.16

allows per match

UNIRB
0.77
Galícia
1.53

finishing

UNIRB+0.00on par
Galícia+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UNIRB ↓

Galícia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

UNIRB or draw
83%
UNIRB or Galícia
79%
Draw or Galícia
39%

Winning margin

UNIRB wins by 2+
37%
Galícia wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

UNIRB 1+ goals
86%
UNIRB 2+ goals
59%
UNIRB 3+ goals
32%
Galícia 1+ goals
62%
Galícia 2+ goals
25%
Galícia 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

UNIRB (draw refunded)
78%
Galícia (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UNIRB at home — creates 2.46, concedes 0.77 · 13 matches

Galícia away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UNIRB attack 2.46 + Galícia defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 2.00

Galícia attack 1.16 + UNIRB defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

UNIRB scores more
61%
level
21%
Galícia scores more
17%

UNIRB at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "UNIRB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Baiano - 2: UNIRB 2–1 Galícia

UNIRB beat Galícia 2-1 in Baiano - 2 on March 31, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Antônio de Figueiredo Carneiro in Alagoinhas, Bahia.