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Manly United vs Central Coast II — New South Wales NPL 2026

Manly United
Manly United
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Central Coast II
Central Coast II
K. Farah 79'
L. Meek 72' (pen), 66'
A. O'Driscoll 51'
T. Kawano 12'
2/7/2025New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 1Cromer Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Manly United53%
×Draw23%
Central Coast II24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manly United
1.77
Central Coast II
1.11

Manly United creates 59% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 46 away

creates per match

Manly United
1.37
Central Coast II
1.00

allows per match

Manly United
1.23
Central Coast II
2.17

finishing

Manly United+0.00on par
Central Coast II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manly United ↓

Central Coast II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Manly United or draw
76%
Manly United or Central Coast II
77%
Draw or Central Coast II
47%

Winning margin

Manly United wins by 2+
29%
Central Coast II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Manly United 1+ goals
83%
Manly United 2+ goals
53%
Manly United 3+ goals
26%
Central Coast II 1+ goals
67%
Central Coast II 2+ goals
30%
Central Coast II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Manly United (draw refunded)
69%
Central Coast II (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manly United at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.23 · 98 matches

Central Coast II away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.17 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manly United attack 1.37 + Central Coast II defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.77

Central Coast II attack 1.00 + Manly United defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Manly United scores more
53%
level
23%
Central Coast II scores more
24%

Manly United at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Manly United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
T. Kawano
51'
A. O'Driscoll
66'
L. Meek
72'
L. MeekPenalty
79'
K. Farah

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL: Manly United 5–0 Central Coast II

Manly United beat Central Coast II 5-0 in New South Wales NPL on February 7, 2025.

Goals: T. Kawano (12'), A. O'Driscoll (51'), L. Meek (66', 72' pen), K. Farah (79').

The match was played at Cromer Park in Sydney.