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Manly United vs APIA Leichhardt Tigers — New South Wales NPL 2026

Manly United
Manly United
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
APIA Leichhardt Tigers
APIA Leichhardt Tigers
4/18/2025New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 11Cromer Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Manly United36%
×Draw24%
APIA Leichhardt Tigers40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manly United
1.49
APIA Leichhardt Tigers
1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 98 home / 96 away

creates per match

Manly United
1.37
APIA Leichhardt Tigers
1.96

allows per match

Manly United
1.23
APIA Leichhardt Tigers
1.60

finishing

Manly United+0.00on par
APIA Leichhardt Tigers+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manly United ↓

APIA Leichhardt Tigers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Manly United or draw
60%
Manly United or APIA Leichhardt Tigers
76%
Draw or APIA Leichhardt Tigers
64%

Winning margin

Manly United wins by 2+
17%
APIA Leichhardt Tigers wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Manly United 1+ goals
77%
Manly United 2+ goals
44%
Manly United 3+ goals
19%
APIA Leichhardt Tigers 1+ goals
80%
APIA Leichhardt Tigers 2+ goals
47%
APIA Leichhardt Tigers 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Manly United (draw refunded)
47%
APIA Leichhardt Tigers (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manly United at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.23 · 98 matches

APIA Leichhardt Tigers away — creates 1.96, concedes 1.60 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manly United attack 1.37 + APIA Leichhardt Tigers defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.49

APIA Leichhardt Tigers attack 1.96 + Manly United defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Manly United scores more
36%
level
24%
APIA Leichhardt Tigers scores more
40%

APIA Leichhardt Tigers at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "APIA Leichhardt Tigers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL: Manly United 1–2 APIA Leichhardt Tigers

APIA Leichhardt Tigers beat Manly United 2-1 in New South Wales NPL on April 18, 2025.

The match was played at Cromer Park in Sydney.