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Manitoba vs Rochester — USL League Two 2018

Manitoba
Manitoba
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Rochester
Rochester
6/4/2023USL League TwoUSL League Two · Central Conference - 6Ralph Cantafio Soccer Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Manitoba57%
×Draw20%
Rochester23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manitoba
2.28
Rochester
1.39

Manitoba creates 64% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 23 away

creates per match

Manitoba
1.73
Rochester
1.22

allows per match

Manitoba
1.55
Rochester
2.83

finishing

Manitoba+0.00on par
Rochester+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manitoba ↓

Rochester →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Manitoba or draw
77%
Manitoba or Rochester
80%
Draw or Rochester
43%

Winning margin

Manitoba wins by 2+
36%
Rochester wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Manitoba 1+ goals
90%
Manitoba 2+ goals
66%
Manitoba 3+ goals
39%
Rochester 1+ goals
75%
Rochester 2+ goals
40%
Rochester 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Manitoba (draw refunded)
71%
Rochester (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manitoba at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

Rochester away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.83 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manitoba attack 1.73 + Rochester defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.28

Rochester attack 1.22 + Manitoba defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Manitoba scores more
57%
level
20%
Rochester scores more
23%

Manitoba at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Manitoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Manitoba vs Rochester

Manitoba beat Rochester 4-1 in USL League Two on June 4, 2023.

The match was played at Ralph Cantafio Soccer Complex in Winnipeg, Manitoba.