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Manitoba vs RKC — USL League Two 2018

Manitoba
Manitoba
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
RKC
RKC
6/25/2023USL League TwoUSL League Two · Central Conference - 12Ralph Cantafio Soccer Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Manitoba39%
×Draw22%
RKC38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manitoba
1.75
RKC
1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 25 away

creates per match

Manitoba
1.73
RKC
1.92

allows per match

Manitoba
1.55
RKC
1.76

finishing

Manitoba+0.00on par
RKC+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manitoba ↓

RKC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Manitoba or draw
62%
Manitoba or RKC
78%
Draw or RKC
61%

Winning margin

Manitoba wins by 2+
20%
RKC wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Manitoba 1+ goals
83%
Manitoba 2+ goals
52%
Manitoba 3+ goals
25%
RKC 1+ goals
82%
RKC 2+ goals
52%
RKC 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Manitoba (draw refunded)
51%
RKC (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manitoba at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

RKC away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.76 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manitoba attack 1.73 + RKC defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.75

RKC attack 1.92 + Manitoba defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Manitoba scores more
39%
level
22%
RKC scores more
38%

Manitoba at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Manitoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Manitoba 2–3 RKC

RKC beat Manitoba 3-2 in USL League Two on June 25, 2023.

The match was played at Ralph Cantafio Soccer Complex in Winnipeg, Manitoba.