Manitoba 0–0 Des Moines Menace: Result & Stats

Manitoba

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Des Moines Menace

6/6/2022

USL League Two · Round 26Ralph Cantafio Soccer Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Manitoba27%

×Draw22%

Des Moines Menace51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ManitobaExpected goals in this matchDes Moines Menace

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.91

Manitoba

1.33

Des Moines Menace

1.91

Des Moines Menace creates 44% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 41 away

1.73

creates per match

2.27

1.55

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Manitoba

1.73

Des Moines Menace

2.27

allows per match

Manitoba

1.55

Des Moines Menace

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Manitoba+0.00on par

Des Moines Menace+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manitoba ↓

Des Moines Menace →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Manitoba or draw

49%

Manitoba or Des Moines Menace

78%

Draw or Des Moines Menace

73%

Winning margin

Manitoba wins by 2+

11%

Des Moines Menace wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Manitoba 1+ goals

74%

Manitoba 2+ goals

38%

Manitoba 3+ goals

15%

Des Moines Menace 1+ goals

85%

Des Moines Menace 2+ goals

57%

Des Moines Menace 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Manitoba (draw refunded)

34%

Des Moines Menace (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manitoba at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

Des Moines Menace away — creates 2.27, concedes 0.93 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manitoba attack 1.73 + Des Moines Menace defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.33

Des Moines Menace attack 2.27 + Manitoba defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Manitoba scores more

27%

level

22%

Des Moines Menace scores more

51%

Des Moines Menace at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Des Moines Menace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Manitoba 0–0 Des Moines Menace

Manitoba and Des Moines Menace drew 0-0 in USL League Two on June 6, 2022.

The match was played at Ralph Cantafio Soccer Complex in Winnipeg, Manitoba.

Manitoba vs Des Moines Menace — USL League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

USL League Two: Manitoba 0–0 Des Moines Menace