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Manisa F.K. vs Sarıyer — 1. Lig 2018

Manisa F.K.
Manisa F.K.
Preview
17:00
Sarıyer
Sarıyer
12/20/20261. Lig1. Lig · Round 19Mumin Ozkasap Stadyumu
Big match
47%
Manisa F.K.
model favours
47%26%26%

Sarıyer win just 25% against the top half (vs 56% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Manisa F.K.47%
×Draw26%
Sarıyer26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manisa F.K.
1.46
Sarıyer
1.01

Manisa F.K. creates 45% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 19 away

creates per match

Manisa F.K.
1.45
Sarıyer
0.84

allows per match

Manisa F.K.
1.19
Sarıyer
1.47

finishing

Manisa F.K.+0.00on par
Sarıyer+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manisa F.K. ↓

Sarıyer →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Manisa F.K. or draw
74%
Manisa F.K. or Sarıyer
74%
Draw or Sarıyer
53%

Winning margin

Manisa F.K. wins by 2+
23%
Sarıyer wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Manisa F.K. 1+ goals
77%
Manisa F.K. 2+ goals
43%
Manisa F.K. 3+ goals
18%
Sarıyer 1+ goals
64%
Sarıyer 2+ goals
27%
Sarıyer 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Manisa F.K. (draw refunded)
64%
Sarıyer (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manisa F.K. at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.19 · 91 matches

Sarıyer away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.47 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manisa F.K. attack 1.45 + Sarıyer defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.46

Sarıyer attack 0.84 + Manisa F.K. defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Manisa F.K. scores more
47%
level
26%
Sarıyer scores more
26%

Manisa F.K. at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Manisa F.K. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Manisa F.K. fall short of their xG (1.2 vs 1.8 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
F.K.
WLWWW
Sarıyer
WWLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Manisa F.K. host Sarıyer

December 20, 2026: Manisa F.K. take on Sarıyer in 1. Lig. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Manisa F.K. host Sarıyer at Mumin Ozkasap Stadyumu.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.