Manisa F.K. 2–1 Şanlıurfaspor: Result & Stats

Manisa F.K.

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Şanlıurfaspor

A. Hodžić 60'

M. Acer 19' (OG)

K. Kanak 78' (OG)

12/21/2024

1. Lig · Round 17Manisa 19 Mayıs Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Manisa F.K.44%

×Draw26%

Şanlıurfaspor30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manisa F.K.Expected goals in this matchŞanlıurfaspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.15

Manisa F.K.

1.46

Şanlıurfaspor

1.15

Manisa F.K. creates 27% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 39 away

1.45

creates per match

1.10

1.19

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Manisa F.K.

1.45

Şanlıurfaspor

1.10

allows per match

Manisa F.K.

1.19

Şanlıurfaspor

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Manisa F.K.+0.00on par

Şanlıurfaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manisa F.K. ↓

Şanlıurfaspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Manisa F.K. or draw

70%

Manisa F.K. or Şanlıurfaspor

74%

Draw or Şanlıurfaspor

56%

Winning margin

Manisa F.K. wins by 2+

22%

Şanlıurfaspor wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Manisa F.K. 1+ goals

77%

Manisa F.K. 2+ goals

43%

Manisa F.K. 3+ goals

18%

Şanlıurfaspor 1+ goals

68%

Şanlıurfaspor 2+ goals

32%

Şanlıurfaspor 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Manisa F.K. (draw refunded)

60%

Şanlıurfaspor (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manisa F.K. at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.19 · 91 matches

Şanlıurfaspor away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.46 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manisa F.K. attack 1.45 + Şanlıurfaspor defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.46

Şanlıurfaspor attack 1.10 + Manisa F.K. defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Manisa F.K. scores more

44%

level

26%

Şanlıurfaspor scores more

30%

Manisa F.K. at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Manisa F.K. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

55

A. Hodžić

Manisa F.K. · D

7.6

Match Events

19'

M. AcerOwn goal

46'

46'

59'

60'

61'

H. Erçelik← P. Forsell

61'

N. Yardımcı← M. Coşkun

69'

B. Osuji← K. Wriedt

69'

A. Gökbayrak← H. Acar

74'

E. Altunkara← D. Diallo

74'

K. Yurdakul← Dani Ramírez

78'

K. KanakOwn goal

82'

Kaan Kanak

90+7'

Ahmet Gokbayrak

90+5'

Burak Çamoğlu

90'

Muhammed GönülaçarPenalty cancelled

90+2'

B. Yılmaz← Y. Talum

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ManisaŞanlıurfaspor

Overview

50%Possession50%

12Total Shots15

5Corners9

13Fouls14

Shots

12Total Shots15

4On Target3

5Off Target7

3Blocked5

7Inside Box12

5Outside Box3

Passing

50%Possession50%

369Total Passes355

270Accurate Passes271

73%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls14

1Yellow Cards4

2Offsides1