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Manisa F.K. vs Fatih Karagümrük — 1. Lig 2018

Manisa F.K.
Manisa F.K.
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Fatih Karagümrük
Fatih Karagümrük
2/2/20251. Lig1. Lig · Round 22Manisa 19 Mayıs Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Manisa F.K.37%
×Draw27%
Fatih Karagümrük37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manisa F.K.
1.27
Fatih Karagümrük
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 91 home / 37 away

creates per match

Manisa F.K.
1.45
Fatih Karagümrük
1.35

allows per match

Manisa F.K.
1.19
Fatih Karagümrük
1.08

finishing

Manisa F.K.+0.00on par
Fatih Karagümrük+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manisa F.K. ↓

Fatih Karagümrük →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Manisa F.K. or draw
63%
Manisa F.K. or Fatih Karagümrük
73%
Draw or Fatih Karagümrük
63%

Winning margin

Manisa F.K. wins by 2+
16%
Fatih Karagümrük wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Manisa F.K. 1+ goals
72%
Manisa F.K. 2+ goals
36%
Manisa F.K. 3+ goals
14%
Fatih Karagümrük 1+ goals
72%
Fatih Karagümrük 2+ goals
36%
Fatih Karagümrük 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Manisa F.K. (draw refunded)
50%
Fatih Karagümrük (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manisa F.K. at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.19 · 91 matches

Fatih Karagümrük away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.08 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manisa F.K. attack 1.45 + Fatih Karagümrük defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.27

Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.35 + Manisa F.K. defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Manisa F.K. scores more
37%
level
27%
Fatih Karagümrük scores more
37%

Manisa F.K. at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Manisa F.K. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Lig: Manisa F.K. 2–2 Fatih Karagümrük

Manisa F.K. and Fatih Karagümrük drew 2-2 in 1. Lig on February 2, 2025.

The match was played at Manisa 19 Mayıs Stadyumu in Manisa.