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Manisa F.K. vs Esenler Erokspor — 1. Lig 2018

Manisa F.K.
Manisa F.K.
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Esenler Erokspor
Esenler Erokspor
10/28/20241. Lig1. Lig · Round 10Manisa 19 Mayıs Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Manisa F.K.34%
×Draw25%
Esenler Erokspor40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manisa F.K.
1.31
Esenler Erokspor
1.45

Esenler Erokspor creates 11% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 38 away

creates per match

Manisa F.K.
1.45
Esenler Erokspor
1.71

allows per match

Manisa F.K.
1.19
Esenler Erokspor
1.18

finishing

Manisa F.K.+0.00on par
Esenler Erokspor+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manisa F.K. ↓

Esenler Erokspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Manisa F.K. or draw
60%
Manisa F.K. or Esenler Erokspor
75%
Draw or Esenler Erokspor
66%

Winning margin

Manisa F.K. wins by 2+
15%
Esenler Erokspor wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Manisa F.K. 1+ goals
73%
Manisa F.K. 2+ goals
38%
Manisa F.K. 3+ goals
14%
Esenler Erokspor 1+ goals
77%
Esenler Erokspor 2+ goals
42%
Esenler Erokspor 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Manisa F.K. (draw refunded)
46%
Esenler Erokspor (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manisa F.K. at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.19 · 91 matches

Esenler Erokspor away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.18 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manisa F.K. attack 1.45 + Esenler Erokspor defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.31

Esenler Erokspor attack 1.71 + Manisa F.K. defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Manisa F.K. scores more
34%
level
25%
Esenler Erokspor scores more
40%

Esenler Erokspor at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Esenler Erokspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Lig: Manisa F.K. 0–1 Esenler Erokspor

Esenler Erokspor beat Manisa F.K. 1-0 in 1. Lig on October 28, 2024.

The match was played at Manisa 19 Mayıs Stadyumu in Manisa.