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Manisa F.K. vs Elazığ Belediyespor FK — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Manisa F.K.
Manisa F.K.
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Elazığ Belediyespor FK
Elazığ Belediyespor FK
11/9/2022Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 4th RoundMümin Özkasap Spor Tesisleri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Manisa F.K.50%
×Draw24%
Elazığ Belediyespor FK26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manisa F.K.
1.75
Elazığ Belediyespor FK
1.20

Manisa F.K. creates 46% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

creates per match

Manisa F.K.
2.00
Elazığ Belediyespor FK
1.50

allows per match

Manisa F.K.
0.89
Elazığ Belediyespor FK
1.50

finishing

Manisa F.K.+0.00on par
Elazığ Belediyespor FK+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manisa F.K. ↓

Elazığ Belediyespor FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Manisa F.K. or draw
74%
Manisa F.K. or Elazığ Belediyespor FK
76%
Draw or Elazığ Belediyespor FK
50%

Winning margin

Manisa F.K. wins by 2+
27%
Elazığ Belediyespor FK wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Manisa F.K. 1+ goals
83%
Manisa F.K. 2+ goals
52%
Manisa F.K. 3+ goals
25%
Elazığ Belediyespor FK 1+ goals
70%
Elazığ Belediyespor FK 2+ goals
34%
Elazığ Belediyespor FK 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Manisa F.K. (draw refunded)
66%
Elazığ Belediyespor FK (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manisa F.K. at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Elazığ Belediyespor FK away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manisa F.K. attack 2.00 + Elazığ Belediyespor FK defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

Elazığ Belediyespor FK attack 1.50 + Manisa F.K. defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Manisa F.K. scores more
50%
level
24%
Elazığ Belediyespor FK scores more
26%

Manisa F.K. at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Manisa F.K. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Manisa F.K. vs Elazığ Belediyespor FK

Manisa F.K. beat Elazığ Belediyespor FK 3-0 in Türkiye Kupası on November 9, 2022.

The match was played at Mümin Özkasap Spor Tesisleri in Manisa.