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Manisa F.K. vs Adana Demirspor — 1. Lig 2018

Manisa F.K.
Manisa F.K.
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Adana Demirspor
Adana Demirspor
L. Diony 83'
O. Kahraman 68'
Y. Talum 40'
B. Suleyman 33'
Y. Yuce 24'
11/21/20251. Lig1. Lig · Round 14Mumin Ozkasap Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Manisa F.K.50%
×Draw24%
Adana Demirspor26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manisa F.K.
1.76
Adana Demirspor
1.21

Manisa F.K. creates 45% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 72 away

creates per match

Manisa F.K.
1.45
Adana Demirspor
1.22

allows per match

Manisa F.K.
1.19
Adana Demirspor
2.07

finishing

Manisa F.K.+0.00on par
Adana Demirspor+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manisa F.K. ↓

Adana Demirspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Manisa F.K. or draw
74%
Manisa F.K. or Adana Demirspor
76%
Draw or Adana Demirspor
50%

Winning margin

Manisa F.K. wins by 2+
27%
Adana Demirspor wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Manisa F.K. 1+ goals
83%
Manisa F.K. 2+ goals
52%
Manisa F.K. 3+ goals
26%
Adana Demirspor 1+ goals
70%
Adana Demirspor 2+ goals
34%
Adana Demirspor 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Manisa F.K. (draw refunded)
66%
Adana Demirspor (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manisa F.K. at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.19 · 91 matches

Adana Demirspor away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.07 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manisa F.K. attack 1.45 + Adana Demirspor defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.76

Adana Demirspor attack 1.22 + Manisa F.K. defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Manisa F.K. scores more
50%
level
24%
Adana Demirspor scores more
26%

Manisa F.K. at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Manisa F.K. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
Y. TalumManisa F.K.Manisa F.K. · M
9.3

Match Events

24'
Y. Yuce↳ M. Kiprit
30'
Ahmet Yilmaz
33'
B. Suleyman↳ Y. Talum
38'
Muhamed KipritGoal cancelled
40'
Y. Talum↳ B. Suleyman
41'
O. Kahraman← Y. Yuce
46'
A. Sen← Y. Talum
46'
H. A. Kaya← A. Yildiz
46'
H. E. Aktas← A. Yilmaz
58'
K. Saygan← U. Imergi
62'
U. Can Aslan← A. Karapo
68'
O. Kahraman↳ A. Sen
71'
B. Adekanye← B. Suleyman
71'
L. Diony← J. Lindseth
74'
Mamadou Cissokho
78'
A. A. Birinci← A. Bolat
81'
E. Demirtas← O. Kaynak
83'
L. Diony↳ M. Cissokho

Possession

63%Manisa

Shots

14Manisa

Pass accuracy

53%Manisa

Statistics

ManisaAdana
Overview
63%Possession37%
14Total Shots6
3.16Expected Goals (xG)0.40
5Corners1
11Fouls12
Shots
14Total Shots6
8On Target2
6Off Target3
0Blocked1
12Inside Box4
2Outside Box2
Passing
63%Possession37%
512Total Passes299
448Accurate Passes232
88%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
11Fouls12
1Yellow Cards1
4Offsides1

Match Recap: Manisa F.K. vs Adana Demirspor

Manisa F.K. beat Adana Demirspor 5-0 in 1. Lig on November 21, 2025.

Goals: Y. Yuce (24'), B. Suleyman (33'), Y. Talum (40'), O. Kahraman (68'), L. Diony (83').

Manisa F.K. controlled possession (63%) and registered 14 shots to 6.

The match was played at Mumin Ozkasap Stadyumu in Manisa.