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Manila Montet vs Tuloy — PFL 2020

Manila Montet
Manila Montet
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Tuloy
Tuloy
4/14/2024PFLPFL · Round 2Rizal Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Manila Montet24%
×Draw16%
Tuloy60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manila Montet
3.00
Tuloy
4.58

Tuloy creates 53% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 20 away

creates per match

Manila Montet
0.50
Tuloy
1.65

allows per match

Manila Montet
7.50
Tuloy
5.50

finishing

Manila Montet+0.00on par
Tuloy+0.00on par

Total goals

98%Over
  • Over98
  • Under2

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

94%Yes
  • Yes94
  • No6

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manila Montet ↓

Tuloy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–21%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–00%
1–11%
1–22%
1–33%
1–44%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–23%
2–35%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–23%
3–35%
3–45%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–33%
4–44%

Most likely 2–3 (5%) · grid covers 53% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
99%1%2.5
98%2%3.5
93%7%4.5
84%16%

Double chance

Manila Montet or draw
40%
Manila Montet or Tuloy
84%
Draw or Tuloy
76%

Winning margin

Manila Montet wins by 2+
13%
Tuloy wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Manila Montet 1+ goals
95%
Manila Montet 2+ goals
79%
Manila Montet 3+ goals
56%
Tuloy 1+ goals
99%
Tuloy 2+ goals
93%
Tuloy 3+ goals
80%

Draw no bet

Manila Montet (draw refunded)
29%
Tuloy (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
93%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manila Montet at home — creates 0.50, concedes 7.50 · 6 matches

Tuloy away — creates 1.65, concedes 5.50 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manila Montet attack 0.50 + Tuloy defence 5.50 → ÷2 → 3.00

Tuloy attack 1.65 + Manila Montet defence 7.50 → ÷2 → 4.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Manila Montet scores more
24%
level
16%
Tuloy scores more
60%

Tuloy at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Tuloy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

PFL: Manila Montet 0–5 Tuloy

Tuloy beat Manila Montet 5-0 in PFL on April 14, 2024.

The match was played at Rizal Memorial Stadium in Manila.