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Manila Montet vs Mendiola — PFL 2020

Manila Montet
Manila Montet
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 1
Mendiola
Mendiola
5/4/2024PFLPFL · Round 4Rizal Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Manila Montet16%
×Draw13%
Mendiola71%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manila Montet
2.09
Mendiola
4.28

Mendiola creates 105% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 44 away

creates per match

Manila Montet
0.50
Mendiola
1.05

allows per match

Manila Montet
7.50
Mendiola
3.68

finishing

Manila Montet+0.00on par
Mendiola+0.00on par

Total goals

94%Over
  • Over94
  • Under6

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

86%Yes
  • Yes86
  • No14

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manila Montet ↓

Mendiola →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–22%
0–33%
0–43%
1
1–00%
1–12%
1–24%
1–35%
1–46%
2
2–00%
2–12%
2–24%
2–36%
2–46%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–23%
3–34%
3–44%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–32%
4–42%

Most likely 1–4 (6%) · grid covers 63% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
99%1%2.5
94%6%3.5
86%14%4.5
72%28%

Double chance

Manila Montet or draw
29%
Manila Montet or Mendiola
87%
Draw or Mendiola
84%

Winning margin

Manila Montet wins by 2+
7%
Mendiola wins by 2+
54%

Team goals

Manila Montet 1+ goals
88%
Manila Montet 2+ goals
62%
Manila Montet 3+ goals
34%
Mendiola 1+ goals
98%
Mendiola 2+ goals
91%
Mendiola 3+ goals
77%

Draw no bet

Manila Montet (draw refunded)
18%
Mendiola (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
84%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manila Montet at home — creates 0.50, concedes 7.50 · 6 matches

Mendiola away — creates 1.05, concedes 3.68 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manila Montet attack 0.50 + Mendiola defence 3.68 → ÷2 → 2.09

Mendiola attack 1.05 + Manila Montet defence 7.50 → ÷2 → 4.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Manila Montet scores more
16%
level
13%
Mendiola scores more
71%

Mendiola at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Mendiola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Manila Montet vs Mendiola

Mendiola beat Manila Montet 6-0 in PFL on May 4, 2024.

The match was played at Rizal Memorial Stadium in Manila.