Manila Montet 2–8 Manila Digger: Result & Stats

Manila Montet

FT

2 – 8

HT: 0 – 4

Manila Digger

7/13/2024

PFL · Round 11Rizal Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Manila Montet1%

×Draw3%

Manila Digger96%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manila MontetExpected goals in this matchManila Digger

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.64

5.72

Manila Montet

0.64

Manila Digger

5.72

Manila Digger creates 794% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 31 away

0.50

creates per match

3.94

7.50

allows per match

0.77

creates per match

Manila Montet

0.50

Manila Digger

3.94

allows per match

Manila Montet

7.50

Manila Digger

0.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Manila Montet+0.00on par

Manila Digger+0.00on par

Total goals

Over93
Under7

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manila Montet ↓

Manila Digger →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–00%

0–12%

0–24%

0–38%

0–412%

1

1–00%

1–11%

1–23%

1–35%

1–48%

2

2–00%

2–10%

2–21%

2–32%

2–42%

3

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (12%) · grid covers 50% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

93%7%3.5

81%19%4.5

63%37%

Double chance

Manila Montet or draw

4%

Manila Montet or Manila Digger

97%

Draw or Manila Digger

99%

Winning margin

Manila Montet wins by 2+

0%

Manila Digger wins by 2+

90%

Team goals

Manila Montet 1+ goals

47%

Manila Montet 2+ goals

14%

Manila Montet 3+ goals

3%

Manila Digger 1+ goals

99%

Manila Digger 2+ goals

97%

Manila Digger 3+ goals

88%

Draw no bet

Manila Montet (draw refunded)

1%

Manila Digger (draw refunded)

99%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manila Montet at home — creates 0.50, concedes 7.50 · 6 matches

Manila Digger away — creates 3.94, concedes 0.77 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manila Montet attack 0.50 + Manila Digger defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.64

Manila Digger attack 3.94 + Manila Montet defence 7.50 → ÷2 → 5.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 96%?"

Manila Montet scores more

1%

level

3%

Manila Digger scores more

96%

Manila Digger at 96% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 96% does not mean "Manila Digger will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff