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Manila Digger vs Ceres — PFL 2020

Manila Digger
Manila Digger
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Ceres
Ceres
5/11/2024PFLPFL · Round 5Rizal Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Manila Digger27%
×Draw18%
Ceres55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manila Digger
2.00
Ceres
2.88

Ceres creates 44% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 13 away

creates per match

Manila Digger
2.86
Ceres
4.69

allows per match

Manila Digger
1.07
Ceres
1.15

finishing

Manila Digger+0.00on par
Ceres+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manila Digger ↓

Ceres →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–36%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–42%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
71%29%4.5
52%48%

Double chance

Manila Digger or draw
45%
Manila Digger or Ceres
82%
Draw or Ceres
73%

Winning margin

Manila Digger wins by 2+
13%
Ceres wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Manila Digger 1+ goals
86%
Manila Digger 2+ goals
59%
Manila Digger 3+ goals
32%
Ceres 1+ goals
94%
Ceres 2+ goals
78%
Ceres 3+ goals
54%

Draw no bet

Manila Digger (draw refunded)
32%
Ceres (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manila Digger at home — creates 2.86, concedes 1.07 · 28 matches

Ceres away — creates 4.69, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manila Digger attack 2.86 + Ceres defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 2.00

Ceres attack 4.69 + Manila Digger defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 2.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Manila Digger scores more
27%
level
18%
Ceres scores more
55%

Ceres at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Ceres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

PFL: Manila Digger 2–4 Ceres

Ceres beat Manila Digger 4-2 in PFL on May 11, 2024.

The match was played at Rizal Memorial Stadium in Manila.