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Maniema Union vs New Jack — Ligue 1 2019

Maniema Union
Maniema Union
AWD
3 – 0
New Jack
New Jack
3/4/2026Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 26

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Maniema Union60%
×Draw27%
New Jack14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maniema Union
1.46
New Jack
0.54

Maniema Union creates 170% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 22 away

creates per match

Maniema Union
1.65
New Jack
0.59

allows per match

Maniema Union
0.50
New Jack
1.27

finishing

Maniema Union+0.00on par
New Jack+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maniema Union ↓

New Jack →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Maniema Union or draw
86%
Maniema Union or New Jack
73%
Draw or New Jack
40%

Winning margin

Maniema Union wins by 2+
31%
New Jack wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Maniema Union 1+ goals
77%
Maniema Union 2+ goals
43%
Maniema Union 3+ goals
18%
New Jack 1+ goals
42%
New Jack 2+ goals
10%
New Jack 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Maniema Union (draw refunded)
81%
New Jack (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maniema Union at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.50 · 86 matches

New Jack away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.27 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maniema Union attack 1.65 + New Jack defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.46

New Jack attack 0.59 + Maniema Union defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Maniema Union scores more
60%
level
27%
New Jack scores more
14%

Maniema Union at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Maniema Union will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Maniema Union face New Jack (Ligue 1)

Ligue 1 returns with Maniema Union hosting New Jack. Match starts March 4, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.