Maniema Union 3–0 Lubumbashi Sport: Result & Stats

Maniema Union

FT

3 – 0

Lubumbashi Sport

5/29/2024

Ligue 1 · Championship Round - 6Stade Joseph Kabila Kabange

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Maniema Union60%

×Draw25%

Lubumbashi Sport15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Maniema UnionExpected goals in this matchLubumbashi Sport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

0.63

Maniema Union

1.55

Lubumbashi Sport

0.63

Maniema Union creates 146% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 85 away

1.65

creates per match

0.76

0.50

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Maniema Union

1.65

Lubumbashi Sport

0.76

allows per match

Maniema Union

0.50

Lubumbashi Sport

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maniema Union+0.00on par

Lubumbashi Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maniema Union ↓

Lubumbashi Sport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Maniema Union or draw

85%

Maniema Union or Lubumbashi Sport

75%

Draw or Lubumbashi Sport

40%

Winning margin

Maniema Union wins by 2+

32%

Lubumbashi Sport wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Maniema Union 1+ goals

79%

Maniema Union 2+ goals

46%

Maniema Union 3+ goals

20%

Lubumbashi Sport 1+ goals

47%

Lubumbashi Sport 2+ goals

13%

Lubumbashi Sport 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Maniema Union (draw refunded)

80%

Lubumbashi Sport (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maniema Union at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.50 · 86 matches

Lubumbashi Sport away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.45 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maniema Union attack 1.65 + Lubumbashi Sport defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.55

Lubumbashi Sport attack 0.76 + Maniema Union defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Maniema Union scores more

60%

level

25%

Lubumbashi Sport scores more

15%

Maniema Union at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Maniema Union will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff