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Maniema Union vs Bukavu Dawa — Ligue 1 2019

Maniema Union
Maniema Union
CANC
14:00
Bukavu Dawa
Bukavu Dawa
2/5/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 11Stade Joseph Kabila Kabange

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Maniema Union65%
×Draw22%
Bukavu Dawa13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maniema Union
1.80
Bukavu Dawa
0.66

Maniema Union creates 173% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 27 away

creates per match

Maniema Union
1.65
Bukavu Dawa
0.81

allows per match

Maniema Union
0.50
Bukavu Dawa
1.96

finishing

Maniema Union+0.00on par
Bukavu Dawa+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maniema Union ↓

Bukavu Dawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Maniema Union or draw
87%
Maniema Union or Bukavu Dawa
78%
Draw or Bukavu Dawa
35%

Winning margin

Maniema Union wins by 2+
38%
Bukavu Dawa wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Maniema Union 1+ goals
83%
Maniema Union 2+ goals
54%
Maniema Union 3+ goals
27%
Bukavu Dawa 1+ goals
48%
Bukavu Dawa 2+ goals
14%
Bukavu Dawa 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Maniema Union (draw refunded)
83%
Bukavu Dawa (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maniema Union at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.50 · 86 matches

Bukavu Dawa away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.96 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maniema Union attack 1.65 + Bukavu Dawa defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.80

Bukavu Dawa attack 0.81 + Maniema Union defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Maniema Union scores more
65%
level
22%
Bukavu Dawa scores more
13%

Maniema Union at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Maniema Union will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Maniema Union host Bukavu Dawa

February 5, 2025: Maniema Union take on Bukavu Dawa in Ligue 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Maniema Union host Bukavu Dawa at Stade Joseph Kabila Kabange.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.